John Richmond's Economy

Norwich and Peterborough fined for miss selling to pensioners

A significant penalty of £1.4m has been issued to Norwich and Peterborough building society soon after The Financial Services Authority found that the building society hadn’t supplied proper guidance to 3,200 buyers, which had been primarily pensioners, who had been sold dangerous investment merchandise.

The original service provider of these investments, Keydata, ended up being shut down by way of the FSA in ‘09 and administrators ended up being assigned in June 2009 at that time 30,000 UK individuals were confronting a loss of £450m.

Keydata supplied the high risk polices for the building society that the Financial services authority uncovered to be incorrect, the fine occurs soon after the building society of late agreed to pay out damages to its buyers who brought in to the investments adding up to £51m. The building society apologised and explained they will repay their buyers back “Capital plus interest.” In all the compensation will cost Norwich and Peterborough £57m which happens to be far more than ten times its 2010 pre-tax revenue.

The FSA’s acting enforcement director Tracey McDermott has said:

“N&P failed in its basic duty to provide suitable guidance to its buyers, despite an internal compliance report pointing out that there had been problems as early as 2007,”

“Firms cannot treat buyers fairly unless they pay attention to their monetary circumstances and attitude to risk when they make recommendations,”

Norwich and Peterborough building society is in talks about being absorbed by the Yorkshire Building Society soon after this episode, Norwich and Peterborough’s chief executive Matthew Bullock stepped down in March.

The Serious Fraud Office still is analyzing the operations of Keydata.

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Why property values are expected to fall

The UK’s property market is beginning to see the signs of a downturn finally begin to show, setting the stage for a double dip in property values.

While the DCLG reports that property inflation over the past year has reached over 10%, this has been overwhelmingly driven by easy credit rather than a return to normal for the market. Standard mortgage rates are now typically 4% or lower, which beats even the low interest rates that prevalied at the height of the property boom across 2006-2008.

In simple terms: as the first signs of a market downturn came in, cash buyers and similar moved in to take advantage of lower high prices - not least because of the easy credit still available to them. With that market segment removed, there are no real buyers and prices can now only fall.

And then there’s the potential for increasing Captial Gains Tax forming an extra downward pressure on property prices, as RICS have warned of. To the credit of the commentators on the Telegraph’s piece, they recognise an unhealthy and bloated property market benefits nobody. High house prices are fine if you are cashing in, but most people will not be, which makes the values transient and irrelevant for existing home owners who wish to live in their property.

The scene is set very much for a fall again, with the CML reportedly announcing a fall in house buyers, with the result that while property inventories at estate agencies are growing, with fewer buyers left in the market (and first time buyers have long been priced out), then the only way the market can move is for prices to fall.

For once, few people are trumpeting a need for house prices to remain high, which can only be a positive thing. After all, we’re still on the downside of a property bubble, which remains harmful the longer it is left uncorrected, resulting in a general sense of gloom among the BSA.

However, no doubt some of the electorate will see a fall in house prices as a negative, unwelcome, event. Even still, I suspect for many people there will be relief, even if their own home values fall. A skewed and unrealistic market benefits nobody, and I suspect the majority of home owners in the UK are more than aware of that, and more than prepared for a fall in prices.

Personally, I suspect we’ll be looking at around 20% fall in value, which for most, should spare the pain of negative equity.

The main danger, really, is a rise in interest rates. Artificially low at present means mortgages can be relatively easily paid. Once they start rising to normal rates, that is when and where the pain will really set in.

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Time to move back to BT

Well, it looks as though I’m finally moving ISP from Zen back to BT broadband, as I just called Zen for a MAC code.

It’s a shame, really, as Zen has a far better reputation for service and support than BT, but the problem of wireless interference is a constant and annoying problem.

Plus BT are offering mobile broadband with their new broadband packages, and free BT openzone minutes, which will be very useful for business travel.

The caveat is that the pricing on the BT website is quite misleading, as those shown only apply to certain exchanges (apparently) plus they include 24-month pricing, which can take as much as 25%-30% off the 12-month price (so Option 3 is £45+VAT over 24 months, or £30+VAT over 12 months).

Still, at least I know from experience that the BT router supplied is far less susceptible to wireless intereference.

Which is very important, because if I couldn’t get decent business broadband, I’d have to consider more serious broadband connection packages, such as a leased line or custom business SDSL, both of which are priced higher than normal mass-market broadband packages.

In the meantime, I can only hope the move to BT goes smoothly, and that I don’t end up getting caught up in their cold automated support process - as BT customer service is not renown for being good.

The dangers to the UK economy

The more I read about the impact of the financial crisis in the UK, the more it feels that the UK is doomed economically, and that the best option now while you have cash in Great British Sterling is to cash out and move aborad to somewhere more financially sound - ie, not threatened with collapse by the weight of its own debt.

That may seem somewhat alarmist, but despite the claims of “green shoots” earlier in the year, we have not seen any signs that the economy is returning to normal. In fact, anything but, and that at best we’re moving into a “lost decade” similar as to what happened to Japan.

Britain’s debt to GDP is spiralling out of control, and even measures to reduce costs being mooted by Labour and the Conservatives are plain in their limitations - we are in far too much of a hole to be able to dig us out even within the next Parliament. It’s going to take a full decade to even begin to expect to bring British debt to normality, and during this period, there is no reason to presume the economy will fare any better.

Repossessions continue to be high, insolvencies are expected to increase, and consumer debt is growing through credit cards and loans at a time when paying are supposedly paying off debt. Unemployment continues to increase in leaps and bounds (forget that’s its slowing - double dip, people), and rather than help employers hire, the government is actually going to tax companies more for employing people.

In the meantime, ratings agencies expect at least a further 15% fall in house prices in the UK, and at a time when the market is limping forward, the FSA wants to bring in tougher rules on mortgages, while at the same time demanding banks hoard more cash.

And that’s before we even get into the threats of deflation and unknown consequences of “Quantitive Easing”.

The result of all these pieces in play can hardly be good for Britain - worsening debt, worsening access to credit, worsening consumer spending, falling asset prices, etc. The strategies in play may be different to Japan in the 90’s, but the state of play is looking increasingly like it.

The problem, of course, is that while matters are exacerbated in the UK, these are afflictions across the world economy. So where is safe?

The answer is relative - the financial crisis is firmly rooted in the US and Europe, and while other areas have been impacted, their fundamantals have been far less knocked by comparison.

Asia remains strong and a bulwark so far against global financial collapse. While no doubt asset bubbles there are growing, they still don;t have the problem of being so invested in complex debt instruments that have so far crippled US and European banks.

Personally speaking, Thailand looks idyllic, but remains subject to Typhoons, as does much of East Asia. A good place to consider investing in, though.

South America is another emerging economy as well, not least in terms of investments, such as land for sale Brazil & property for sale Brazil. If South America itself seems a little rough, you could always consider moving towards central America, not least Panama, which remains under US control, and still offers a lot of decent property for sale Panama.

Australia or New Zealand could even be places worth considering moving to - close enough to Asia to feel the economic benefit, but heavily Anglicised.

In the meantime, now seems to be the moment to batten down the hatches or move on - economic power is clearly heading East, and to developing nations, and for those who remain, only the prophets of doom are left to comfort us.

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Phone vs broadband

I don’t normally write about technical issues. Though I can use computer technology, it all goes over my head and I don’t have a clue how it all works.

I’ve come across an interesting problem while setting up my home office, though - wireless interference.

I was originally with BT as my ISP for broadband, but after previous problems with the company I decided quality of service was more important than price, so I moved to Zen Internet.

They sold me a Thomson TG784 router with the package, and all seemed to be running fine.

Until I bought a nice cordless phone, a Panasonic KX for the home office.

Both work very well and as required most of the time, but the problem is that whenever anybody rings, the broadband cuts out.

The result is quite annoying, especially as I keep getting sales calls from loan companies using autodiallers - which disconnects the internet every time, even when I pick up the phone on the first ring.

I’ve contacted Zen about the problem, but they haven’t been much help at all. And I wouldn’t expect much from Panasonic as the phone does exactly what is expected from it.

I was beginning to think I needed a different business broadband service. After all, there is a myriad of types to choose from - ADSL, SDSL, bonded broadband and even leased lines. And don’t forget the satellite option!

Apparently, though, wireless interference is not all that uncommon.

The frustration is that if wireless interference is such a problem, then why is more effort not made by manufacturers to minimise the risk of it happening in

the first place?

This is especially when there appears to be quite a push to make much of home networking wireless.

It looks as though I will now have to look at changing my router to one that runs on a different frequency. which is obviously going to be cheaper than

having to get a new type of broadband installed.

It is still a pain, though. Still, I do not think I am the only one who has never got frustrated over a computer issue!

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False dawn in economic optimism

This spring’s green shoots are being increasing shown to have misplaced optimism, with economic conditions continuing to worsen within the UK - GDP continues to fall, and expectations of a recovery for next year remain muted.

While it’s easy to just look at the UK in isolation, there are a couple of major economic pointers on the horizon that suggest the world’s economy could suffer major set backs - even before a recovery has begun. And this is likely to bode ill for Britain, with existing downbeat expectations potentially proving to be optimistic if these factors play out.

The first is the credit bubble in China. So far, the Chinese economy has continued to grow strong - but it seems that rather than learn from the mistakes of the West, the Chinese are keen to repeat them. Yes, there’s a credit bubble forming in the Chinese economy, as the government there encourages lending to such a degree that the IMF is already alarmed.

The second is the original engine of the credit crunch - the US real estate market. So far it has shown no real recovery, and what’s worse, is that not only are repossessions (foreclosures) continuing to increase, they are not expected to peak until after August 2011, when the last big wave of ARMs - subprime mortgages - come up for renewal past their discount period.

These are not the only negative indicators - the IMF continues to warn that the world economy faces a deflationary spiral, that if borne out, could leave much of the West enduring an economic scenario equivalent to Japan’s lost decades.

The UK has its own problems as well, not least due to the major debt bubble it’s been sitting on for the past few years (it’s not simply about house prices anymore). Lending in the UK is still suffering, with a mass withdrawal from the personal loans market, and such poor lending to business by the banks that Alaister Darling is now having to try and appear to be doing something about it. In the meantime, the IMF is warning that the UK’s credit card debt could be crippling.

Any suggestion of an improving mortgage market should be taken in context of the fact that Spring and summer are traditionally the peak season - and what we’ve seen so far is still weak.

In short, economic conditions in the world remain fragile, but there are no positive indicators at present to suggest we’re past the worst of it - anything but. There are still major dangers on the horizon, which leave little room for optimism for future economic conditions.

UK recession changes shape

Edmund Conway in the Telegraph claims the recession is over, which is about as outrageously optimistic as you can get.

Much of this unfounded optimism seems focused on the fact that the property market has seen a positive bounce over this spring - mortgage lending is up, buyer inquiries are up, and the DCLG reported a 1.1% rise in house prices over April.

The problem is, spring has always been prime home buying time, so to extrapolate this into some form of economic recovery seems absurd. It really does look like a bounce, which means we should expect economic conditions to get a lot worse towards the winter - as the property market traditionally cools.

In the meantime, other economic indicators are looking increasingly adverse.

We’ve seen repeated claims that the European banks have not properly written down their losses. In the meantime, Eastern Europe looks like it could crash and drag a lot of Europe down with it through a chain reaction. Latvia is already in big trouble and could be the smoking gun to bring the rest of Eastern Europe down with it, and a number of central European banks with them. And that’s before we address the issue of existing write-downs the ECB is already seriously worried about.

In the meantime, here in the UK, the whole banking sector continues to reshuffle in order to try and adapt to what still remains a crisis.

RBS is looking to split off business deals it claims as “unprofitable” into a separate group - in the meantime, as if the market hadn’t already got itself into trouble creating complex debt instruments, this is exactly what is being proposed to get the UK taxpayer money back from semi-nationalised banks such as the RBS and Lloyds Group. 

Among the building societies, the government is looking to allow changes to how they fund themselves in mass markets, in order to stop a repeat of the Dunfermline Building society crash. This is not least because others, not least the West Bromwich Building Society and others are also believed to be on the brink of collapse.

The Nationwide Building Society has already raised its mortgage rates sharply this week, close on the heels of other increases in mortgage rates last month.

If anything, the entire financial world still seems to be on a downward spiral. While the potential collapse of the banking sector appears to have been averted - certainly for now - the global economic picture is anything but healthy.

Stay tuned.

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Fraud hits UK car insurers

One of the lesser reported stories to make the news during this economic crisis is the issue of increasing fraud and avoidance hitting the insurance industry.

While there’s little call to be unduly sympathetic to insurers, it remains a concern to all consumers because policy premiums are simply increased to pay for the costs of fraud, which hits everybody.

In this month alone we’ve seen a couple of different stories come up on this. On the one hand, is the frightening statistic that police are now seizing 460 uninsured vehicles per day. That’s well over 150,000 vehicles per year. And the figure appears to be increasing because some people think they can no longer afford their car insurance, and so drive without any protection. Which is mad when you think of the possible costs and impact on work of having your car towed away.

On the other hand, a general escalation of insurance fraud, not least among car insurance claims. It seems that drivers are either trying not to pay on their insurance, or else trying to play it to pay for other costs.

It’s important to realise that car insurance isn’t a luxury - it’s a necessity, and for protecting the driver’s interests at that.

While most accidents in the UK are not fatal, there are still more than 8 deaths on the road each day. And even seemingly minor injuries such as whiplash are renown for the potential to develop into a more debilitating medical condition.

In either instance of injury or death in a car accident, the insurance isn’t going to heal wounds or resurrect - but at least it can pay for costs, for repairing or replacing the vehicle, paying for extra medical expenses, and many have a built in death policy which can help protect income and inheritance for dependents.

In the meantime, I’m currently running a car insurance policy with Nationwide, but I’m very close to being eligible for the over-50 discounts with Saga. As I’ve iterated before, though, don’t try and save money trying to get the cheapest car insurance, but instead look for one that gives you all the cover you need.

After all, where’s the point of saving a few pounds, if in the event of a claim, it can cost you a lot more in expenses, lost time, and lost income, by having the wrong policy?

Trying out Tumblr

Well, I’ve already been trying out blogging by myself at Richmond Way as part of trying to understand the online environment, not least with the current A1 websites my developer friend advised to support my new company.

Even still, I have to admit it feels sometimes isolating and lonsesome to blog without any real understanding of what audience may or may not be around.

I’ve therefore decided to start up blogging at a few online blogging communities, where perhaps it may be easier to engage with an online audience, and that’s why I’ve set up this blog at Tumblr.

I’ve also started using the Flock browser to try and manage the different feeds and website logins and photos I’m working with. It seems easy enough to work with so far, but time will tell as to whether I actually find it useful.

I’m not sure what to expect as yet, and perhaps lack of expectation is good. Nevertheless, it will be an interesting experiment.

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